Retail sales are projected to increase by 3.0% to 3.5% during this holiday season, according to ICSC’s 2024 holiday shopping forecast. Additionally, ICSC anticipates a 6.0% rise in food-and-beverage sales, bringing the total holiday spend to $1.66 trillion. Along with this forecast, ICSC unveiled the findings from its Annual Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey, which reveals that 241 million consumers (92%) plan to shop this holiday season—an increase of six million from 2023 and the highest participation rate since 2019.
“This year, consumers are displaying resilience amid economic uncertainty and rising prices,” said ICSC President and CEO Tom McGee. “Despite challenges, retail sales have remained robust throughout the year, and we expect another strong holiday shopping season.”
Shoppers are projected to spend an average of $706 on gifts and related items, the highest figure since 2018. However, inflation remains a concern: 90% of shoppers stated that inflation would influence their buying decisions, with 37% planning to spend more this year, partly due to higher prices.
To manage costs, many consumers are focusing on finding deals. Nearly half intend to take advantage of promotions, and 68% said that discounts or exclusive offers would encourage them to visit physical stores—up seven percentage points from last year. Loyalty programs are also playing a significant role in shoppers’ decisions, with 65% of respondents saying membership benefits will influence their purchases.
Physical stores remain central to holiday shopping. Ninety-two percent of shoppers plan to make in-store purchases, with most also planning to buy online from the same retailer. Many shoppers, especially Gen Z and Millennials, will also visit malls and shopping centers to shop, dine, and enjoy other services, making these spaces key destinations during the holiday season.
In line with trends from previous years, 78% of shoppers plan to start their holiday shopping earlier than usual, with half citing early deals and promotions as their motivation. The survey also found a notable increase in the number of consumers expecting to complete their shopping by mid-December, suggesting a busy shopping period following Thanksgiving.
For gift shopping, 63% of consumers plan to shop at discount department stores, while 33% will visit traditional department stores. Gift cards (58%) remain the most popular gift choice, followed by apparel, accessories, and jewelry (52%), and toys, games, and other hobbies (50%). Additionally, consumers are increasingly purchasing experiences, such as dining (25%) and experiential activities (16%).
“Despite economic pressures, 70% of holiday shoppers feel their financial situation is either better or the same as last year, reflecting a sense of measured optimism,” McGee added. “While interest rate cuts and easing inflation are providing relief, other factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and the upcoming presidential election, will continue to influence shopping behavior.”
Methodology
The 2024 ICSC Holiday Intentions Survey was conducted online from September 23-25, 2024, with a sample of 1,009 respondents representing a demographically diverse population.
About ICSC
ICSC is dedicated to promoting and enhancing the spaces where people shop, dine, work, play, and gather, recognizing them as vital components of communities and economies. ICSC produces events that foster connections, advocates for public policy, and provides resources to drive industry growth and innovation. For more information, visit www.ICSC.com.
