In June 2024, total new-vehicle sales, encompassing both retail and non-retail transactions, are anticipated to range between 1,273,600 and 1,336,800 units. This reflects a decrease of 2.6% to 7.2% compared to June 2023. The month will consist of 26 selling days, mirroring the setup of June last year.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecasted to fall between 14.7 million and 15.4 million units, showing a decline of 0.7 million to 1.4 million units from June 2023.
For the first half of 2024, new-vehicle total sales are expected to range from 7,794,500 to 7,857,700 units, marking a modest increase of 0.4% to 1.2% from the first half of 2023, when adjusted for selling days. Without adjusting for selling days, this represents a growth of 1.7% to 2.5% year-over-year.
Retail Sales Forecast
Retail sales of new vehicles in June 2024 are projected to reach between 1,009,845 and 1,073,000 units, indicating a decline of 2.5% to 8.2% compared to June 2023.
For the first half of 2024, new-vehicle retail sales are forecasted to range from 6,273,900 to 6,337,000 units, showing an increase of 0.6% to 1.6% from the same period in 2023 when adjusted for selling days. Unadjusted, this reflects a growth of 1.9% to 2.9% year-over-year.
Insights and Outlook
Thomas King, president of J.D. Power’s data and analytics division, noted challenges due to disruptions in dealer software systems, impacting June sales figures. Sales expected in June are likely to be deferred to July, assuming system issues are resolved by month-end. Despite short-term setbacks, overall demand remains robust, with dealers poised to recover swiftly.
Retail inventory is anticipated to increase to approximately 1.8 million units, a 4.5% rise from May 2024 and a substantial 41.6% increase from June 2023. The fleet mix is projected to account for 20.5% of sales, up 0.6 percentage points from June 2023.
The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is anticipated to decline to approximately $44,857, down $1,372 or 3% from June 2023, driven by increased manufacturer incentives and higher availability of lower-priced models.
Total retailer profit per unit, encompassing vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income, is expected to decrease by 32.3% from June 2023 to $2,407. Rising inventory levels are cited as a primary factor behind this decline, with fewer vehicles selling above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price.
Looking ahead, J.D. Power expects dealer software disruptions to be resolved by July, facilitating recovery of deferred sales and a strong start to the month.
Sales & SAAR Comparison
| U.S. New Vehicle | June 2024 | May 2024 | June 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales | 1,041,436 units (5.4% lower than June 2023) | – | 1,100,461 units |
| Total Sales | 1,305,206 units (4.9% lower than June 2023) | – | 1,372,785 units |
| Retail SAAR | 12.2 million units | 13.2 million units | 13.1 million units |
| Total SAAR | 15.1 million units | 16.0 million units | 16.1 million units |
Figures for June 2024 are forecasted based on the first 13 selling days of the month. June 2024 has 26 selling days, the same as June 2023. June 2024 figures represent mid-point of range estimates.
EV Outlook
Elizabeth Krear, VP of J.D. Power’s electric vehicle practice, highlighted a stable yet slow growth in EV sales for the first half of 2024, despite increased market coverage and competitive pricing. Interest in EVs among new-vehicle shoppers remains steady, with EV retail share holding at 8.4%.
Global Sales Outlook
Jeff Schuster, VP of automotive research at GlobalData, reported a global light-vehicle selling rate of 87.4 million units in May 2024, with varied performance across regions. Notably, challenges persist in China and Europe, influencing global market dynamics.
